Gold prices on the last day of October set a new historic high, exceeding the level of $2790 per ounce. However, after that the bulls began to actively fix profits, and the yellow metal ended the second month of fall with a strong pullback from the achieved highs. At yesterday’s trading session there were attempts to resume the growth, but the buyers’ power rather quickly dried up. The correction of the gold price may deepen to at least 2710.
An important fundamental factor that interrupted the wave of growth of yellow metal price was the release of new economic data on the United States. The PCE inflation rate was higher than expected, which lowered market participants’ expectations for another 0.5% Fed rate cut. Yesterday’s labor market report for October could have brought back some positivity, but traders didn’t pay much attention to the low growth of jobs in the country. In addition, the unemployment rate and wage growth remained steady.
According to analysts of Saxo Bank, the correction of gold prices may intensify after the announcement of the results of the U.S. presidential election on November 5. High demand for safe haven assets could be replaced by a sharp reversal of the trend, especially if we don’t see the most radical scenarios come to fruition next week. Thus, the price of the precious metal could be vulnerable to a deeper pullback.
In the physical market of gold, the cooling of buyers’ interest is also noticeable. According to representatives of the World Gold Council (WGC), by the end of 2024, the demand for the yellow metal in India will fall to the minimum for 4 years. Although the season of festivals and weddings has already started in the country, the population began to buy jewelry only slightly more often. According to WGC experts, Indian residents have already replenished their gold reserves after the reduction of import taxes at the end of summer and will now increase demand only in case of a serious drop in prices.
The RSI indicator on the daily chart of gold is moving down from the overbought zone, giving a sell signal. The next correction target is the level of 2710.
The following trading strategy can be suggested:
Sell gold at the current price. Take profit — 2710. Stop loss — 2760.
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