Earlier this week, the EURUSD currency pair broke through the local lows of 1.0670 and declined further without retesting this level, which alone provides technical prerequisites for the pair to return to it. In addition, EURUSD also has another level, well above the current one, which has not been retested. It is 1.1000. The presence of two untested levels above the current EURUSD quotes increase the probability of the pair’s upward correction, at least to the recently broken level of 1.0670.
Fundamentally, the trigger for such a correction may be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data expected to be released today. Inflation (year-on-year) is forecast to be 2.6%, up from the previous figure of 2.4%.
If the key index for October is lower than in September, it will push EURUSD upwards as there will be less arguments to keep the Fed policy tighter regardless of rising inflation expectations related to Trump’s re-election. An additional factor contributing to the pair’s growth will be the scenario in which the core CPI falls below September’s 0.3% as well.
The overall recommendation is to buy EURUSD if the US CPI (YoY) is lower than 2.4%.
Profits should be taken at the level of 1.0670. A Stop loss could be set at the level of 1.0550.
The volume of the opened position should be set in such a way that the value of the possible loss, fixed with the help of a protective Stop loss order, is no more than 1% of your deposit funds.
